Investment Ideas

The number of people aged 60 and over worldwide is expected to double from 1 billion in 2020 to over 2 billion in 2050. The importance of age-related therapies, services, and products is therefore becoming increasingly relevant. From an investment perspective, the current landscape provides a compelling case for allocating capital to the overarching theme of an ageing population.

The world’s populations are now living longer. Furthermore, according to a recent Lancet study, declining birth rates mean that by 2050 the number of births will not be sufficient to sustain population sizes. With increasingly higher proportions of populations entering their 60s and 70s, it is little wonder that our Next Generation analysts believe that the prospects are bright for the Extended Longevity theme (which spans healthcare, elderly care, and beauty, as well as nutritional and financial planning) and the long-term investment prospects of the key players associated with it.

Given this backdrop, and the fact that valuations remain attractive compared to historical averages, we have put an interesting 18-month structured product into subscription. The product offers exposure to four stocks: Alcon (the global leader in eye care – both in terms of sales and its technology platform), Eli Lilly (one of the two leaders for novel diabetes and obesity treatments – segments that are set to grow by 8% and 30% p.a., respectively, by the end of the decade), Swiss Life (the largest life insurance company

in Switzerland, with a leading market share in the individual life and group pensions businesses), and L’Oréal SA (whose strong and diversified brand portfolio makes it the industry leader in terms of margins and organic growth).

Besides an attractive guaranteed coupon of 10.5% (USD), 8.85%(EUR), and 6.8% (CHF) p.a., the downside risk is reduced by the lock-in feature, which can convert the product into a 100% capital-protected product on a monthly basis. The low knock-in barrier of 55%, which is observed continuously, offers an additional layer of downside risk mitigation.

For further information about this product, click here:

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This content constitutes marketing material and is not the result of independent financial/investment research. It has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA.

This content is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to buy or sell any securities, securities-based derivatives or other products or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction.

Julius Baer does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

This content may include figures relating to simulated past performance. Past performance, simulations and performance forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results.

For further details about risks and suitability, as well as important legal information, please consult the following link: IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION

Learning through play

Running, table tennis, boxing and games of skill – the list of contests pitting humans against machines is getting ever longer. Not long ago a two-legged robot of the Chinese company Unitree set a new record among humanoids with a speed of about 3.3 m/s. True, that’s not a patch on how fast a human can go, but the rate of development is startling, given that “H1” only managed 1.5 m/s in December. Meanwhile, scientists at ETH Zurich have developed “CyberRunner”, a robot that can solve a marble maze game using artificial intelligence (AI). After a couple of hours of training, at the end of last year it was able to beat an “extremely capable human player” by 6% with 55 control instructions. All this “fun and games”, though, has a serious point: whether in industry, healthcare or the home, robots are set to not only assist humans, but in some cases also replace them over the next few years.

Billion-dollar market ...

A glance at the growth in robots reveals that the aforementioned “reorganisation of society” is proceeding at pace. According to the World Robotics Report, a total of 553,052 new industrial robots were installed across the world in 2022 – equivalent to a growth rate of 5% year on year. Broken down by region, almost three quarters of the new humanoids came onto the market in Asia, with Europe accounting for a 15% share of the market and everywhere else one tenth. This growth will continue, with the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) predicting that the number of industrial robots installed annually will climb to 718,000 by 2026. China is among those putting its foot especially hard on the gas: at the end of 2023, Beijing presented a plan under which humanoid robots will have reached such a stage of maturity by 2025 that they can go into mass production.

… with dynamic growth

The electronic assistants in healthcare are likewise very much in demand. Market researcher Apollo Research Reports puts the market value of medical robots in 2022 at around USDbn 18.1 and anticipates that it will rise by an average 16.6% a year to reach USDbn 83.1 by 2032. While doctors use four-armed surgical machines to guide scalpels around patients with millimetre precision and thus achieve better clinical results, AI can also be used to develop drugs faster and make more accurate diagnoses. The experts of US bank Morgan Stanley reckon that the use of AI in this sector could play a key role in accelerating research and development and lead to an additional 50 new treatments in the next ten years with a sales potential of more than 50.

Industry 4.0 as the driving force

While robots may be finding their way into many areas of life throughout the world, and even private homes, the great majority of humanoids will continue to be deployed in traditional industry, such as car manufacturing. As automation progresses further, however, it is not only robots – think Robot Process Automation (RPA) – that are set to take on an important role: AI comes into play here too, because artificial intelligence enables companies to manage complex tasks that would require actual human intelligence. Whether the smart factory, data analysis or customer interaction, these clever systems are increasingly becoming a vital tool in the modern business world. Connecting RPA and AI allows the two transformative technologies to be combined, unleashing even greater potential. Driven by AI, machine learning and the cloud, the experts at Fortune Business Insights expect the global market for robot-assisted process automation to jump from USDbn 13.9 2023 to USDbn 50.5 in 2030. This is equivalent to an annual growth rate of 20.3%.

Source: IFR

Digitalisation as the recipe for success:

Swissquote Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Index combines two mega-trends

Acquisitions and innovations

Many companies are looking to share in the paradigm shift brought about in the technology world by AI and robotics. Among them is Amazon, for instance. The online giant first put its faith in robot technology with the purchase of Kiva Systems back in 2012. Amazon, however, would like not only to automate its own business, but also provide its customers with digital assistants. To that end the group recently sought to acquire robot vacuum cleaner manufacturer iRobot, but could not get over the regulatory hurdles. It remains to be seen which target Amazon will look to acquire next in this segment. ABB, the world’s second largest manufacturer of industrial robots, has already found a candidate: a few weeks ago the group acquired AI firm Sevensense with a view to equipping its entire mobile robot fleet with artificial intelligence in order to drive future growth. In the medical robot sector, Intuitive Surgical is currently the focus of attention. Recently the company submitted an application to the US health authorities, the FDA, for approval for the next generation of its world-famous “da Vinci” robot system. The four-armed surgical machine is said to have “hundreds” of design changes and 10,000 times the computing power.

Booming chip market

Robot manufacturers are not the only ones profiting from the digital mega-trends, though, with suppliers, too – particularly in the chip sector – enjoying a boom in business. A prime example of this is Nvidia, the US semiconductor group, which in February reached a market capitalisation of more than USDtn 2 for the first time. Nvidia is regarded as a major beneficiary in the AI sector for good reason: with its high-performance chips, the Californian company controls around 80% of the global market. Its customer base includes well-known names such as Microsoft, Meta Platforms and even ChatGPT developer OpenAI. One competitor that Nvidia needs to take seriously is AMD. At the turn of the year the group positioned itself in the race for the USD 400bn AI chip market with the launch of new products. According to the company’s press release, the processors are “the most advanced AI accelerators in the industry”. The MI300X alone is expected to bring in revenue of USDbn 0.5 by the middle of the year. Over the year as a whole, sales of AI special chips are set to exceed the USDbn 2 mark by some distance.

Considerable track record

The booming prospects for robots and artificial intelligence have led to a sharp rise in the share prices of many protagonists in the industries. Over the last year ABB’s share has climbed 37% in value, that of Intuitive Surgical by almost two thirds, while AMD and Nvidia stock has more than doubled and tripled respectively. The positive trend is also clearly reflected in the Swissquote Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Index, the broadly diversified benchmark having appreciated by rather more than a fifth over the last twelve months. The index includes a total of 30 companies – including the stocks mentioned in this text – from the promising sectors. In terms of region, companies from the USA lead the way. At the moment the total 23 stocks from elsewhere make up 64% of the barometer’s price movement. The absolute index heavyweight, however, is the Japanese Obic, which accounts for a 6% share. There are another 3 stocks from the Far East in the selection alongside the software group, including Fanuc, the world’s largest robot manufacturer. In August 2023 the company passed the record mark of 1 million industrial robots delivered in total.

Three letters for success: AMC

In May 2019 Leonteq issued an actively managed certificate (AMC) on the Swissquote Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Index. This actively managed tracker enables investors to participate 1:1 in Swissquote Bank’s carefully designed barometer. The professionally managed portfolio only includes stocks that meet strictly regulated qualitative and quantitative requirements. Despite this complex process, the annual management fee is a modest 0.7%. In return, holders of the certificate get a certificate that offers a convincing combination of transparency and liquidity alongside a 30-member-strong index. The certificate allows skilful participation in the next quantum leap forward in technological development.

Tracker on the Swissquote Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Index (1 year)

Legal Disclaimer

This document constitutes Advertising within the meaning of article 68 of the FinSA.

This publication serves only for information purposes and is not research; it constitutes neither a recommendation for the purchase of financial instruments nor an offer or an invitation for an offer. No responsibility is taken for the correctness of this information. Investors bear the full credit risk of the issuer / [guarantor] for products which are not issued as COSI® products. Before investing in derivative instruments, investors are highly recommended to ask their financial advisor for advice specifically focused on the investor´s financial situation; the information contained in this document does not substitute such advice.

This publication does not constitute a simplified prospectus pursuant to art. 5 CISA, or a listing prospectus pursuant to art. 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations. The relevant product documentation can be obtained directly at Leonteq Securities AG via telephone +41 (0)58 800 1111, fax +41 (0)58 800 1010, or via email termsheet@leonteq.com.

Selling restrictions apply for the EEA, Hong Kong, Singapore,the USA, US persons, and the United Kingdom (the issuance is subject to Swiss law).

The Underlying’s performance in the past does not constitute a guarantee for their future performance. The financial products' value is subject to market fluctuation, which can lead to a partial or total loss of the invested capital. The purchase of the financial products triggers costs and fees. Leonteq Securities AG and/or another related company may operate as market maker for the financial products, may trade as principal, and may conclude hedging transactions. Such activity may influence the market price, the price movement, or the liquidity of the financial products.

Insofar as this publication contains information relating to a Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Product (PRIIP), a Key Information Document in accordance with Regulation (EU) No 1286/2014 (PRIIPs Regulation) is available at https://www.priipkidportal.com/

Any - including only partial - reproduction of any article or picture is solely permitted based on an authorization from Leonteq Securities AG. No responsibility is assumed in case of unsolicited delivery.

© Leonteq Securities AG 2023. All rights reserved.

Generally, we believe that the structural factors driving demand for cybersecurity remain as healthy as ever. And with cyberattacks becoming more sophisticated by the day, cybersecurity remains a dominant topic across global information technology departments. Admittedly, the valuations of many cybersecurity stocks have risen and now look expensive. At the same time, factors such as the elongated sales cycles, increased spending scrutiny, and longer payment terms are not adequately reflected in stock prices.

Against this backdrop, investors could consider a capital-protected solution on the Julius Baer Next Generation Cybersecurity Index, which is currently in subscription. The product offers a minimum redemption amount at maturity as well as a high degree of upside participation up to the barrier of 132%.

For further information about this product, click here.

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This content constitutes marketing material and is not the result of independent financial/investment research. It has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA.

This content is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to buy or sell any securities, securities-based derivatives or other products or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction.

Julius Baer does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

This content may include figures relating to simulated past performance. Past performance, simulations and performance forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results.

For further details about risks and suitability, as well as important legal information, please consult the following link: IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION

Fed takes a break

Has the cycle of interest rate hikes in the USA come to an end? This is the subject of intense debate among investors, analysts and economists as we approach the home straight of the 2023 stock market year. To combat high inflation, the US central bank has jacked up its target rate from almost zero in early 2022 to 5.25% to 5.50% now. At the last two meetings in September and the start of November, though, the Open Market Committee stayed its hand. Nevertheless, Fed chairman Jerome Powell does not want to set any end date for the squeeze on monetary policy, let alone talk about rate cuts. Indeed, he continues to direct his focus on forcing inflation down to the stated 2% target. “We are not confident that we have achieved such a stance,” Powell said following the latest decision on interest rates. At the same time, he pointed out that the US economy had an astonishingly strong constitution.

Sharp rise in yields

The markets may be doing at least some of the Fed's work for it. “The financing conditions have tightened considerably over the last few months,” Powell noted. This development had been driven in the main by longer-dated bonds. In fact, there has been a lot of movement at the far end of the yield curve recently, with the yield on the 30-year US Treasury climbing above the 5% mark in mid-October (see graph), a level last seen in the summer of 2007. The interest rate for the long-term bond has risen by around 80 basis points since the end of 2022, while that for the 20-year version has jumped higher still. Pimco does not see the latest movement as having been driven primarily by concerns over inflation or other rate hikes by the Fed. Rather, the fixed-income manager cites the diminishing fears of recession as the central cause.

Fixed-income giant with a clear opinion

“Steepening of the yield curve creates a compelling opportunity for investors in money markets to consider adding longer-duration assets, in our view,” write the Pimco experts in a blog post. At the moment starting yields were high relative both to history and to other asset classes on a risk-adjusted basis. This could create a “yield cushion” amid a still highly uncertain outlook. “In addition, bonds have the potential to earn capital gains and diversify portfolios,” the authors reckon. Pimco otherwise shares the Fed's assessment that the financial conditions have already tightened. This would make new debt more expensive and thereby possibly slow down economic activity, which could in turn lead to a loosening of monetary policy.

A time for silence

We are not quite that far yet. What is certain, though, is that Jerome Powell will soon fall silent. On 2 December the “blackout period” ahead of the Open Market Committee meeting starting ten days later will begin. During this time high-ranking representatives of the US central bank refrain from passing comment on the economy, monetary policy and interest rates. The markets are in any case pretty unanimous that there will be no increases in rates either on 13 December or in the following months. According to the CME FedWatchTool, it is even possible that there will be a first cut in the target rate in June 2024 (see graph). In that regard the tool, which is based on the conditions on the futures markets, chimes with Pimco’s view. Should interest rates actually start trending downwards next year, now may well be the right time to build up a position in longer-term US government bonds, which have been badly hit recently.

Yield on 30-year US Treasuries (in %)

Source: FRED Economic Data (St. Louis Fed); as at 13.11.2023

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Expectations for US interest rates (Fed target rate probabilities, each in %)

Source: CME FedWatch Tool (CME Group); as at: 31.11.2023
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

New fixed-income investment: Outperformance certificate on the iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr ETF

US government bonds under pressure

In terms of prices, there was not much to be gained in the fixed-income asset class in 2023, with quotations softening across a broad front. Given monetary policy, this weakness is generally unsurprising: the majority of central banks have been raising interest rates vigorously to ward off the spectre of inflation. Furthermore, bond markets have recently also been generating some momentum of their own. This is particularly true for the USA, because it is known that the Fed suspended the series of interest rate hikes in September. Despite the pause, however, yields continued to rise while US government bonds declined sharply. That also and especially applied for the longer terms. This thesis can be illustrated by the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index: from 20 September, the date of the Fed meeting, this benchmark lost more than a tenth of its value within the space of a month.

Possible turnaround in interest rates

It is possible that even the US monetary authorities were not entirely comfortable with the rise in yields associated with this price trend. At any rate, a rumour that the Fed could intervene in the market for US government bonds has since done the rounds. What is certain is that prices have recovered somewhat, with the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index climbing by up to 8% from its recent low. One reason for the rebound could be the strengthening consensus on a possible turnaround in interest rates next year. Futures markets are now pricing in a reduction of 75 basis points in the Fed target rate for 2024. This expectation naturally depends first and foremost on the further course of inflation and the general economic climate. Another factor is the national budget: the parties in Washington D.C. have until 17 November to amend the “stopgap bill”. If the House of Representatives and the Senate are unable to agree on interim financing, a shutdown looms. Government coming to a halt, and the unforeseeable consequences for the world's largest economy, could in turn undermine the scenario of falling interest rates.

Bond ETF as an underlying

Leonteq has launched an interesting new issue for investors who are thinking about taking a position in US government bonds in light of this background: the outperformance certificate on the iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF. The underlying of this structured product is an exchange traded fund (ETF) on the bond index already mentioned. This currently contains 40 US government bonds with a duration of 20 years or more. A good half of the fund portfolio is allocated to US Treasuries due in 2050 or later. iShares launched this ETF at the start of 2015. The assets under management now amount to USDbn 7.42. The new outperformance certificate offers the prospect of participating disproportionately in rising quotations for the underlying.

Opportunity for outperformance

The certificate has a two-year term. Should the countermovement of the longer-dated Treasuries prove to be sustainable, the structured product would share in this with an outperformance rate of 140%. Assuming that the underlying appreciates by a fifth over a 24-month period, the certificate would repay 128% of the denomination. Please note that the participation does not kick in fully until the maturity date. Other factors will have an effect on the pricing during the term, including and especially how interest rates in the USA develop. There is no partial or capital protection, so the structured product would participate fully in any downward movement of the ETF. To conclude, the new outperformance certificate offers a good opportunity to take a punt on the interest rate turnaround in the USA and rising prices for long-dated Treasuries with diversification and leverage.

Legal Disclaimer

This document constitutes Advertising within the meaning of article 68 of the FinSA.

This publication serves only for information purposes and is not research; it constitutes neither a recommendation for the purchase of financial instruments nor an offer or an invitation for an offer. No responsibility is taken for the correctness of this information. Investors bear the full credit risk of the issuer / [guarantor] for products which are not issued as COSI® products. Before investing in derivative instruments, investors are highly recommended to ask their financial advisor for advice specifically focused on the investor´s financial situation; the information contained in this document does not substitute such advice.

This publication does not constitute a simplified prospectus pursuant to art. 5 CISA, or a listing prospectus pursuant to art. 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations. The relevant product documentation can be obtained directly at Leonteq Securities AG via telephone +41 (0)58 800 1111, fax +41 (0)58 800 1010, or via email termsheet@leonteq.com.

Selling restrictions apply for the EEA, Hong Kong, Singapore,the USA, US persons, and the United Kingdom (the issuance is subject to Swiss law).

The Underlying’s performance in the past does not constitute a guarantee for their future performance. The financial products' value is subject to market fluctuation, which can lead to a partial or total loss of the invested capital. The purchase of the financial products triggers costs and fees. Leonteq Securities AG and/or another related company may operate as market maker for the financial products, may trade as principal, and may conclude hedging transactions. Such activity may influence the market price, the price movement, or the liquidity of the financial products.

Insofar as this publication contains information relating to a Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Product (PRIIP), a Key Information Document in accordance with Regulation (EU) No 1286/2014 (PRIIPs Regulation) is available at https://www.priipkidportal.com/

Any - including only partial - reproduction of any article or picture is solely permitted based on an authorization from Leonteq Securities AG. No responsibility is assumed in case of unsolicited delivery.

© Leonteq Securities AG 2023. All rights reserved.

The S&P 500 index includes some of the world’s leading companies that are not only shapers and drivers of major structural trends, but also generators of strong free cash flows. As a result, the S&P 500 is not only the best known equity index in the world, it is also consistently in pole position when it comes to performance.

However, in light of the geopolitical uncertainties, a capital-protected solution can be a good way for investors to maintain or even increase their exposure to the performance of the index without being exposed to the downside risk at maturity.

Julius Baer's Research team is very constructive on the S&P 500: diminishing monetary policy headwinds as the US Federal Reserve winds down its rate hikes; a gradual decline in inflation that will remove a large layer of uncertainty from the market; the start of an earnings recovery for US large-caps, which borrowed at low fixed rates when interest rates were low; gains on cash from attractive short-term interest rates until it is needed for future growth. There are therefore many reasons to maintain or even increase exposure to the performance of the S&P 500 in the context of portfolio objectives.

For most investors, exposure to the S&P 500 is a core, longterm investment. With its three-year maturity, this product fits well into this longer-term asset allocation perspective. In addition, the longer maturity of this product makes it possible to combine capital protection with high upside participation: a maximum return of just under 50%. If the S&P 500 rises by 50% or more, the performance of the exchange-traded fund will be replaced by a 25% rebate paid at maturity (in that case, however, other equity investments are likely to have risen strongly). In short, this product offers attractive exposure to the world’s leading companies as well as capital protection, which takes into account the current global uncertainties.

Source: Julius Baer Equity Strategy Research, Julius Baer Structured Products Institutional Sales; CIO Monthly: Money having a price again is healthy, 17 October 2023

For further information about this product click here

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This content constitutes marketing material and is not the result of independent financial/investment research. It has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA.

This content is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to buy or sell any securities, securities-based derivatives or other products or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction.

Julius Baer does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

This content may include figures relating to simulated past performance. Past performance, simulations and performance forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results.

For further details about risks and suitability, as well as important legal information, please consult the following link: IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION

To date, the reporting season in the SMI has been rather slow. Roche and Nestlé disappointed the markets almost simultaneously in mid-October. A few days later, Novartis exceeded expectations and raised its earnings forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the reaction of investors was rather subdued. Missed sales expectations for two cancer drugs were cited as a downer of the interim report. After the SMI heavyweight trio, the company with the fourth-largest share in the leading index will speak out next week. On November 7, UBS will publish its results for the third quarter of 2023, when the strong share price performance of the big bank in recent months will come under scrutiny. With a plus of 24%, the UBS share leads the 2023 performance ranking for the SMI to date.

Substantial book profit

With this development, the domestic institution also outperforms the European sector by a long way. The outperformance is directly related to the banking quake that hit Switzerland at the beginning of the year. Credit Suisse was pretty much faltered by it. Supported by the government and the SNB, UBS "had" to take over its stumbling competitor. Just how favorably it got its way became clear in the balance sheet for the second quarter of 2023. UBS posted a record operating profit (pre-tax profit level) of USD 29.239 billion, of which USD 28.925 billion was attributable to a book gain or "badwill" from the CS acquisition. During the presentation of the figures, CEO Sergio Ermotti, who has returned to the top of the Group, described the bank merger as one of the largest and most complex in history. "We are wasting no time in delivering value for all stakeholders," he said in late August.

Turnaround for the better

Reducing costs, leveraging economies of scale and regaining trust - those are the top banker's priorities. Before its near-collapse, clients had been withdrawing their capital from Credit Suisse on a grand scale. In the fourth quarter of 2022 alone, Wealth Management recorded outflows of close to USD 100 billion. Since then, the situation has gradually improved. In the first two months of the third quarter of 2023, the CS division was able to stop the outflow of funds (see chart). As far as the operating result of the entire Group is concerned, Sergio Ermotti is aiming for roughly break-even for the past quarter. In the entire second half of 2023, pre-tax profit is expected to be positive. In addition to the latest results and the outlook, investors and analysts are likely to take a close look at the status of the planned integration of Credit Suisse during the presentation of the new month's results.

Interesting conditions

UBS shares have been somewhat out of step with the broader market in recent weeks - down more than 6% on a one-month basis. Even if the interim report and accompanying commentary fail to propel the large cap anew, the softcallable barrier reverse convertible (BRC) offers an attractive yield. Quarterly, this CHF denominated new issue counts a coupon of 9% p.a.. The barrier is a low 59% of the initial level. As long as UBS does not reach or fall below this level during the term, the issuer will repay the nominal in full. Otherwise, the investment would be exposed to the price risk of the underlying. Please note the soft callable feature. It allows an early termination and redemption of the BRC. Leonteq Securities can make use of this option for the first time after six months and thereafter quarterly.

UBS/ Credit Suisse: Inflows and outflows in wealth management (net new assets/investments)

* up to and including 28.08.2023; Source: UBS, as of 31.08.2023

Historical data is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

UBS: Chart (in CHF)

Source: Reuters, as of 30.10.2023

Historical data is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Legal Disclaimer

This document constitutes Advertising within the meaning of article 68 of the FinSA.

This publication serves only for information purposes and is not research; it constitutes neither a recommendation for the purchase of financial instruments nor an offer or an invitation for an offer. No responsibility is taken for the correctness of this information. Investors bear the full credit risk of the issuer / [guarantor] for products which are not issued as COSI® products. Before investing in derivative instruments, investors are highly recommended to ask their financial advisor for advice specifically focused on the investor´s financial situation; the information contained in this document does not substitute such advice.

This publication does not constitute a simplified prospectus pursuant to art. 5 CISA, or a listing prospectus pursuant to art. 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations. The relevant product documentation can be obtained directly at Leonteq Securities AG via telephone +41 (0)58 800 1111, fax +41 (0)58 800 1010, or via email termsheet@leonteq.com.

Selling restrictions apply for the EEA, Hong Kong, Singapore,the USA, US persons, and the United Kingdom (the issuance is subject to Swiss law).

The Underlying’s performance in the past does not constitute a guarantee for their future performance. The financial products' value is subject to market fluctuation, which can lead to a partial or total loss of the invested capital. The purchase of the financial products triggers costs and fees. Leonteq Securities AG and/or another related company may operate as market maker for the financial products, may trade as principal, and may conclude hedging transactions. Such activity may influence the market price, the price movement, or the liquidity of the financial products.

Insofar as this publication contains information relating to a Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Product (PRIIP), a Key Information Document in accordance with Regulation (EU) No 1286/2014 (PRIIPs Regulation) is available at https://www.priipkidportal.com/

Any - including only partial - reproduction of any article or picture is solely permitted based on an authorization from Leonteq Securities AG. No responsibility is assumed in case of unsolicited delivery.

© Leonteq Securities AG 2023. All rights reserved.

Return to growth 

Rising interest rates and galloping inflation have thoroughly unsettled consumers over the last year. This threatening combination also sometimes caused the economy to slow down. In Switzerland the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) halved to 2.1% in 2022, while in the USA the rate of expansion fell to the Swiss level after reaching almost 6% the previous year. Following a weak first six months, however, the graph started to head up again, and the upturn is gaining strength this year too. Although the overseas economy grew by only 1.1% at the start of 2023, the second quarter saw an annualised growth rate of 2.4%, exceeding the average expectations of economists. The domestic economy has put in a strong start to the year, causing the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) to confirm its growth target of 1.1% for 2023 and forecast an acceleration to 1.5% in 2024.

Inflation on the retreat

The positive growth figures go hand in hand with an all-clear on the inflation front. The rate of increase in the price of goods and services in the US fell in June to its lowest level in more than two years. Consumer prices climbed by only 3.0% compared with the previous year, the smallest rise since March 2021. In Switzerland prices are actually falling again, the national consumer price index slipping 0.1% in July compared with the previous month. The Federal Office for Statistics calculated year-on-year inflation at 1.6%. In the eurozone, too, the graph is pointing downwards: last month inflation decreased to 5.3%, having reached 10.6% at its peak in October 2022. Furthermore, according to provisional estimates the economy in the currency zone as a whole also grew at a faster than expected 0.3% in the second quarter.

Tourism as an economic factor

Although Germany, Europe's largest economy, is still showing signs of weakness, southern European states especially are returning to growth. One of the reasons for this is tourism. According to UNWTO data, for instance, southern Europe rebounded to its pre-pandemic level at the start of the year. It is not only the old continent that is seeing greater bookings, though: the itch to travel is increasing across the world. Last year a little over 960 million tourists travelled abroad, which means that two-thirds of the pre-coronavirus figure has already been regained. Overall, international arrivals in the first quarter of 2023 came to 80% of the level before the outbreak of the virus. At 235 million, the number of tourists was more than twice as high as in the same period of 2022. “The start of the year has shown again tourism's unique ability to bounce back,” stated UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili, adding: “In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals.” Receipts from international tourism grew back to hit the USDtn 1 mark in 2022, with Europe accounting for the largest share at nearly USDbn 550.

Bullish share prices

Many sectors are profiting from the recovery in tourism, including airlines, aircraft manufacturers, hotels and even the entertainment and cruise industry. Share prices in the last of these sectors have metaphorically gone through the roof this year. Cruise ship giants Royal Caribbean and Carnival, for instance, have posted three-figure percentage gains since the turn of the year. Shares in aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, though, have also appreciated markedly so far in 2023 thanks to flourishing business. In the first half of the year, for example, Boeing took in orders for a good 1,000 aircraft, almost four times as many as in the same period the previous year. The two rivals also managed to beat expectations with their sales and earnings figures for the second quarter. Another positive development is that Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun is looking to ramp up production of its bestselling 737 MAX to 38 machines a month, 7 more than previously, in light of the global recovery in aviation traffic.

Source: Statista

Economic winners in one package: Tracker on the Swissquote Recovery Index

Broad-based recovery

A wide range of companies are profiting from the economic revival. As already revealed, the tourism sector is well out in front. Not only have the end of the coronavirus pandemic and fuller wallets thanks to pay increases given wings to the travel bug, but there is also a little more loose change for a hot drink or burger every now and then, which the renowned coffee shop chain Starbucks and KFC owner Yum!Brands are happy to provide. The after-work beer is also returning to popularity with rising incomes and greater confidence in the economy, something which is causing the tills to ring again for Wetherspoon, the British pub chain that also owns some hotels. On the subject of hotels, leading global names such as Hilton and Marriott are enjoying higher reservations in line with the recovery. Both companies managed to exceed Wall Street expectations for sales and profit estimates in the second quarter and also raised their outlooks for the year as a whole. The same was true of Booking Holding, the operator of online travel portals.

Diversified index

The economic rebound is also causing shares in the corresponding companies to soar in value. The share price of Booking Holdings climbed by more than half in 2023 and has just reached an all-time high. Hotel chain Marriott achieved a remarkable increase of slightly more than one third, likewise setting a new record recently. Stock of budget airline Ryanair similarly grew by a little over 30%. Even the share price of Hungarian Wizz Air rose by a quarter in the wake of operational successes. Not only did the airline post a new passenger record last year, but the group also flew back into profit. It would truly be a mammoth task for investors to keep an eye on all the shares that gain from an improvement in the economy. That is something investors do not even have to consider, though, thanks to the solution by the name of the Swissquote Recovery Index. The actively managed barometer is currently made up of 32 components, including all the companies mentioned in the text so far.

Promising sectors

On a sector view, the tone of the Swissquote Recovery Index is set by the aviation industry. This sector currently contains eleven companies of the barometer which together add up to one third of the index weighting. If cruise providers, hotels and booking platforms are added, the tourism sector accounts for almost half the benchmark. The absolute heavyweight, however, is Madison Square Garden Sports from the entertainment industry. This is a professional sports company which owns teams such as the New York Knicks in the National Basketball Association (NBA) and the Rangers of the National Hockey League (NHL). The strategy barometer is also broadly positioned in the entertainment sector. The index includes, for instance, leisure and theme park operator SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment, film exhibitor Cinemark Holdings and Dave & Buster’s, an owner of video game arcades and bowling alleys. Strayer Education is the stock with the highest weighting at 6.2%. The company specialises in educational services and also owns its own private university.

Outperformers for the portfolio

Leonteq’s tracker on the diversified Swissquote Recovery Index offers investors convenient and low-cost access to a large number of international companies that profit from an economic upturn. The active approach ensures that the composition can always be adjusted to the latest developments on the market. To that end the index is reviewed quarterly by the experts and adjusted where necessary. The costs incurred for this come to a moderate 0.85% p.a. So far the strategy has paid off: in the current year the certificate on the Swissquote Recovery Index has climbed more than 11%, while the SMI has posted a rise of only around 3%. 

Source: Swissquote, as at: 07.08.2023

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